Apple's App Store
With the near-universal use of computers and smartphones, a company's online reputation can be a big deal. For one, many people are purchasing products online and by doing so are being exposed to reviews of these companies. These reviews come from different platforms such as Amazon, Google, and the Apple App Store.
For the most part, a company's reviews on the internet are a good summary of the quality of the products/services that company offers. Could a company's reviews on these platforms help predict that company's future stock price? Why not? The reviews can provide a general synopsis of people's opinions on the product/service of the company and possibly forecast the sales of it since it is so easy for consumers to find the reviews of others, something which most people consider when buying online.
Because of this, we have added Apple App Store data to our system and are applying predictive analytics models to this data.
App Store Info
As of June 2016, the Apple App Store is home to 2 million apps. Apple's revenue model has been a 70/30 split on app sales with developers. Soon though, this will change. Apple has said that in the future it will change to an 85/15 revenue model for monthly paying users that a developer is able to maintain for over a year.
What this revenue model change could do is change the way apps are sold through the app store, from previously selling as a one time purchase to now as a monthly subscription. For many developers and companies that have apps, this would provide further incentive to innovate and update their apps, for they know that they can lose their users at any moment.
App Store Data in Wootrader
Get to the App Store information by clicking on an individual stock on the Daily Rankings/General Woo page. While looking at an individual stock, under the “Rankings” tab, find a new section under “Sentiment” reading “Apple App Store Apps.”
Under the "Overview" tab:
Under the "Advanced" tab you'll find detailed information about screeners within the model such as AppStore Average Rating, AppStore Current Versions Average Rating, and AppStore Ratings Count (The Advanced tab is only available to Advanced Investor and above membership levels.).
Under the "Advanced" tab:
Within the App Store model, the App Store Ratings Count and Appstore Current Version Ratings Count models have been generating alpha, with current weights of 56 and 17. Over a period of 1 day, both screeners have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 5 percent.
|Screener Name||Description||Top Performance|
|AppStore Rating Count||Screener that ranks the stocks on the total number of ratings for all versions of the apps published by the company.||One day, basket of 5 stocks: up 10.78%; S&P: up 4.13%|
|AppStore Current Versions Ratings Count||Screener that ranks the stocks on the total number of ratings for the current versions of the apps published by the company.||One month, basket of 5 stocks: up 9.21%; S&P: up 4.13%|
Clicking on any of the screeners within the Apple App Store model or on the model itself will get you to a ranking of stocks ordered by their performance within that screener/model.
Below you can see the Apple App Store model's specific performance in relation to the S&P 500.
Shown above: in the past day, the model has outperformed the S&P by over one percent (2.84% vs 1.59%) and over the past 5 days the model has outperformed it by around 0.9%. Throughout its whole history, the model has not outperformed the S&P 500, showing that App Store data has been more accurate at picking stocks that outperform the S&P, and is something to watch out for in the future.
Click the reports tab at the menu bar to find a tab called “App Store Mobile App Stats.”
Click on the "Mobile App Stats" button and you will find a page that shows sortable stats about companies' app store information such as the number of apps that company has, the total number of ratings that company has in the app store, the number of ratings that company has in the current versions of its apps, and the review rating for each of those metrics. Just click on one of these stats to sort the stocks by that particular stat.
There is reason to believe that a company's App Store performance could anticipate its stock performance. In early June, Apple App Store Apps model had a weighting in the General Woo model. You can find historical weights by clicking the "History" button when on the General Woo.
Keep an eye out for our Apple App Store Data model and for its performance!